Still A Game of Solitaire

Egypt's ruling party today is engaging in a classical case of politics of appeasement, and even that is occurring within rigid boundaries. The culture of fear which keeps regimes in power for generations feeds on establishing a sense of the taboo and the proclaimed desire to protect the greater good and is buttressed with the reality of retribution against those deemed to have stepped out-of-bounds. That culture of fear in Egypt is now being challenged by a simple slogan "Kefaya" or "Enough". ..... I have commented that change is necessary and inevitable, however if it is to be positive it must be holistic in its approach. In other words, voices, all voices, must be given space to be heard. The reality of changing the rules of the game in theory to allow multi-players while effectively only allowing one player is not lost on anyone. Everyone can see that it is still a game of solitaire. With dissenters being arrested and sporadic demonstrations, today's referendum on the constitutional amendment theoretically allowing for multi-candidate presidential elections left much to be desired not the least of which is sincerity.

Reality check: Egypt's deck of 70 million cards with no shortage of aces is no longer willing to have a single dealer.

Eve of a Non-Event

With both secular and religious opposition calls to boycott the referendum on a constitutional amendment allowing multi-candidate presidential elections in Egypt, the general consensus is that the reforms are unlikely to result in dramatic political changes to leadership in the upcoming September election, a point even the Egyptian Prime Minister is willing to concede. The argument being put forth by the government and its supporters is that the seeds for future change have now been sowed with this constitutional amendment. Change, it is argued, is best if slowly cultivated, rather than brought on suddenly with the consequences unknown and unchecked so as to avoid the scenarios of Algeria or Iran (Iraq being a regional aberration). Egypt viewed the social, economic and political upheavals faced by the former Soviet Union and the leadership quickly came to the conclusion that change, if unavoidable, should be managed and slow. Often the cases of Morocco and even Jordan are pointed to as slow evolutionary processes allowing for political maturation of the electorate and strengthening of the institutional framework. While such arguments may have merit, they must be made within the context of slow change on all front, including a welcoming to all political voices. As the regime in power opens to change and puts in place the empowering mechanics, the opposition must also be allowed to mature with the process. As noted by various analysts, including very recently in the Washington Post, the clear contradiction in the international and Egyptian support of opposition religious political movements such as Hamas and Hezbollah, yet resistance to greater political integration of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is staggering, and raises serious doubt in many minds as to the veracity of the desire for change.

Referendum or rubber stamp

On May 25, Egyptians will go to the polls to approve or disapprove of the constitutional amendment allowing multi-candidate presidential elections in Egypt. While on the face of it, this would appear to be an astounding development in the forever land of the pharaoh, careful analysis has led some critics to conclude that these changes will result in little challenge to that legacy. Reaction by both religious and secular government opposition is a call to Egyptians to vote against the amendment, leaving the man on the street somewhat confused. On the one hand, the regime that has ruled Egypt since the revolution of 1952, is calling the refendum which is supposed to open the door for a potential overturn of that stronghold "... a day of national pride" and "... the making of a new dawn". On the other hand, the fledgling opposition which has long called for more openness in the political process in Egypt, is opposed to the amendment which is supposed to allow for just that. Ironic? Contradictory? That is the simplistic conclusion of a simplistic analysis. Egyptians are anything but simplistic, yet they are still caught in the middle. If there is a mass vote against this constitutional amendment, when will they have the chance to see some change, any change, again? Will their vote of protest be heard and lead to greater reforms or will it result in a forceful closing of the door? That is the dilemma that the man on the street faces. Is this arguably cosmetic change a relief valve for the evident pressure building up, or is it a real change that may show results perhaps not in this election but the next, or the one after that? Are Egyptians willing to wait.... and wait... and wait?

Reminds me of....

Headlines today read of mass arrests and general unrest in Egypt - reminiscent of times not too far past. Depending on your source, close to 2,000 have been recently arrested, most from the Muslim Brotherhood - that's where the recent history is being repeated. While Egypt's Parliament voted on the proposed constitutional amendment, supposedly allowing multi-candidate presidential elections, critics are calling it a hoax. It is not only the Muslim Brotherhood who voice the desire for true elections. Reuters reports that the government-sanctioned opposition party, Al Ghad, has withdrawn from further discussions with the ruling National Democratic Party in protest over the proposed constitutional amendment. The group is quoted as saying that the talks "has become a theatrical entertainment directed by the NDP to deceive the people and domestic and international public opinion."
I wonder how long this situation can continue, and at what cost...

The Expected Backlash

As expected, the backlash is loud against the transparently restrictive constitutional amendment allowing, for the first time, a multi-candidate race for president of Egypt. Egyptians have been in denial for far too long. History is witness to the fact that when a sleeping people awake, they do so with determination.

The Color of Change

Here is an article in ALJAZEERA.NET you may be interested in.
Brotherhood leaders held in Egypt
I encourage readers to learn about the Muslim Brotherhood, who they are, and what they stand for. This is not meant to endorse this group, but rather to challenge the stereotyping that has blinded the world to the real change that is happening in Egypt.

My Opening Salvo

I have marveled at the world of blog for too long. Today I have put my toe in the wild waters with trepidation.

I want this to be a place where we can talk about change, whether good or bad, slow or fast, whatever your position in these moving sands... change is the one thing we can all be sure of.

Let's start with the social change that is moving the sedentary sands of Egypt, a place where time seems to stand still, where adaptability is the essence of longevity.